The chill in Canada's housing market could be thawing sooner than expected.

Interest rates are dropping.1 Pent-up demand is building.2 Sales are starting to heat up.3 And a potentially electrifying set of mortgage rules just went into effect, making it easier than it 's been in years for first-time buyers with smaller down payments to qualify for a higher priced home.4

As a result, some experts now project that competition for new homes could start tightening sooner than anticipated.5 "It's game on for home buyers," wrote NerdWallet's mortgage and real estate expert Clay Jarvis after the Bank of Canada announced its latest jumbo rate cut in December. "The combined impact of lower rates and less-stringent lending guidelines could be a game-changer –– for some buyers, anyway."4

Even the Bank of Canada acknowledged last month that a confluence of factors that are now widely expected to come together in 2025 could help to rekindle Canada's long frozen housing market. "There are some mortgage rule changes to come," noted Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers at a December press conference. Plus, "another 50-basis-point cut. We know housing is very sensitive to interest rates, so we do expect more pickup."6

What does this mean for you? Read on for our take on what to expect for 2025.  

MORTGAGE RATES WILL BOTTOM OUT

With the Bank of Canada's policy rate now at its lowest point since 2022, both fixed and variable rate mortgages are more affordable than they have been in years.7

Mortgage rates could slide further still. The Bank of Canada is still widely expected to cut its key rate by another percentage point or more this year, which will push the prime rate below 5%.8

But don't expect fixed mortgage rates to fall too much more in the coming months, if they drop at all. In fact, BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic thinks fixed rates may have already hit bottom. That's because today's rates not only reflect previous rate cuts. They're also influenced by anticipated...