Will 2026 be the year Canadian buyers stop waiting? Most major housing forecasters believe activity will finally pick up after two muted years, but expectations vary on how strong that rebound will be and where it will show up first. After a sluggish and uncertain 2025, the Canadian housing market appears positioned for gradual normalization rather than a sharp recovery.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) now forecasts national home sales of roughly 509,000 transactions in 2026, representing about 7–8% growth year over year.¹,² That would place activity above 2025 levels, though still below long-term historical averages. Average prices are expected to return close to the $700,000 range, reflecting modest appreciation rather than a renewed surge.¹,³

Nearly every major Canadian forecaster agrees on the direction of sales activity—more transactions in 2026 than in 2025—but opinions diverge on prices and the pace of recovery.¹,⁴,⁷,⁹ Where opinions diverge is on the pace. Some expect buyers to re-enter steadily as rates stabilize. Others believe affordability constraints will continue to cap transaction volumes, particularly in higher-priced regions. As in the U.S., the key question is behavioral: when do buyers and sellers finally accept that current conditions represent the new normal?

The 2025 Context: A Delayed Recovery, Not a Breakdown

In early 2024, CREA projected that 2025 would mark a meaningful rebound year for Canada’s resale market, driven by pent-up demand and easing interest rates.¹ By late 2024, that recovery appeared to be forming. Under that forecast, national home sales were expected to exceed 500,000 transactions, with average prices climbing back toward $700,000.

That momentum stalled in early 2025. Trade uncertainty, broader economic unease, and affordability pressures pushed many buyers back to the sidelines, prompting CREA to downgrade its outlook⁴. Sales activity softened most noticeably in British Columbia and Ontario, while prices in several major...